See macro stress before markets price it.

The qualitative overlay scores 19 points, bringing the composite GMSI to Base 22 + Overlay 19 = GMSI 41, confirming the STRESSED regime. The dominant risk the quant base cannot capture is the Hormuz blockade's persistent energy shock transmission — Iran's parliament has explicitly stated Hormuz control is non-negotiable, the ceasefire since April 8 has been violated repeatedly, and a French shipping vessel was struck in transit on May 6, confirming commercial navigation remains acutely dangerous. The ECB's April 30 acknowledgment that it is 'certainly moving away' from its baseline, with markets now fully pricing three hikes in 2026, creates a compounding stagflation policy error risk for the Eurozone that HY spreads at 2.79% have not yet priced. On the diplomatic side, the Russia-Ukraine 3-day Victory Day ceasefire just announced for May 9-11 is a marginal positive but reads as tactical conflict management rather than strategic resolution, and the Iran MOU remains unsigned with the nuclear enrichment moratorium duration gap — Iran proposing 5 years, the US demanding 20 — representing the most structurally intractable impediment to a deal before the May 25 Hajj deadline. The full six-trade portfolio remains appropriate for the STRESSED regime: GLD and SHY as core safe-haven anchors, TLT puts as the steepening expression, HYG puts as mispriced credit hedge, USO long on Hormuz closure persistence, and FXE puts as the ECB stagflation policy error trade — all sized and structured to survive a de-escalation resolution without catastrophic loss while preserving significant upside if the current stress trajectory extends.

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Actionable